Forecasting
Why Every Forecast Needs an Uncertainty Range
MarketLens Editorial · 12 Oct 2026
A forecast without an uncertainty range is incomplete. MarketLens shows an 80% range for the projected close.
How it is built
During walk-forward backtesting we record how far the ensemble's forecasts were from what actually happened at the same horizon. The 10th and 90th percentiles of those errors become the range around today's forecast. When there are too few test points we fall back to a volatility-based estimate (σ × √h).
What it means — and does not mean
- Roughly 8 in 10 historical forecasts at this horizon landed inside a range of this width.
- It is not a guarantee and not a probability of profit.
- Market regimes change; future errors can be larger.
Uncertainty grows with horizon, which is why 90-day forecasts show much wider ranges than next-day ones.
Risk notice: Forecasts are uncertain statistical estimates. Scenarios are algorithmic outputs, not investment advice. EatoRush MarketLens is not SEBI-registered. See the Risk Disclaimer.
Related articles
- Reading uncertainty ranges like a professional
A forecast is a range, not a number. Learn what the 10th to 90th percentile band means.
- Backtesting Done Right: Walk-Forward Testing Without Look-Ahead Bias
Why random splits cheat on time series, and how chronological testing gives honest error estimates.